Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
